Russia’s 12-Year Plan to Address Demographic Crisis: A Look Back

Russia’s 12-Year Plan to Address Demographic Crisis: A Look Back

In an effort to combat its demographic crisis, Russia launched a 12-year plan aimed at tackling the nation’s high mortality rate and low birthrate. Encouraged by a recent rise in birthrates—1.9 million Russian children were born in 2012 compared to 1.2 million in 1992—the Kremlin implemented a series of incentives and penalties to boost population growth.

As part of this initiative, the government offered financial bonuses to families with more than two children and pledged improvements in healthcare, housing, and education for families. However, alongside these incentives, the state introduced punitive measures, including a tax on divorce, branding it an “act of hatred toward children.” Additionally, even unemployed and impoverished individuals were required to pay alimony. Restrictions on abortion also became increasingly strict, with laws discouraging the procedure.

At the same time, the Russian government intensified an anti-homosexuality campaign. Sergei Ivanov, then Kremlin chief of staff, announced state plans to commission artwork promoting ‘traditional moral and spiritual family values.’ The crackdown culminated in a 2013 law banning the “propaganda of nontraditional sexual relations”, passed by the Duma in a unanimous 436-0 vote.

In Moscow, officials extended a ban on LGBTQ+ demonstrations for 100 years, despite a European Human Rights Court ruling that such bans violated international law. Authorities enforced this policy aggressively: on May 25, two women were arrested for unfurling a rainbow flag, while 30 more protesters were detained outside the Duma. That same day, 15 demonstrators were arrested in Gorky Park.

Homosexuality had been illegal in Russia from Stalin’s era until the fall of the Soviet Union, and the lingering social stigma remained strong. Vitaly Milonov, a primary backer of anti-gay legislation in St. Petersburg, declared that “homosexuality is best cured by fasting and prayer.” Similarly, a Ukrainian parliament member echoed the belief that homosexuality, like divorce and abortion, posed a threat to national security, citing concerns over HIV/AIDS and declining birthrates.

The Kremlin’s approach suggested that homosexuality, divorce, and abortion were primary factors behind Russia’s declining population and high mortality rate. These measures resonated with popular sentiment and the increasingly influential Russian Orthodox Church, which actively supported conservative policies.

Unaddressed Causes of Russia’s Demographic Decline

Despite the government’s focus on increasing births, it largely ignored two major contributors to Russia’s demographic imbalance:

• Alcohol-related deaths among men
• The country’s HIV/AIDS epidemic

Russia faced one of the world’s highest rates of early death due to heavy alcohol consumption, particularly among men. Additionally, more than 2 million Russian men were HIV-positive, with AIDS ranking as the third leading cause of premature death—far higher than in the United States, where it ranked 23rd. Approximately 80% of HIV cases in Russia were linked to intravenous drug use, yet social stigma and fear of discrimination deterred many from seeking medical care until their conditions became severe.

While incentives for childbirth and penalties for divorce may have had some impact on birthrates, a more effective long-term strategy would have been to focus on reducing premature deaths caused by alcohol and drug addiction. By addressing these health crises, Russia could have ensured that more men lived long enough to marry, raise families, and contribute to population growth.